A window of opportunity
Many political commentators have attributed the fall in the Labour vote from Black and Asian communities in the general election to the crisis in Gaza. But there is also widespread disillusionment with Labour on the question of tackling systemic racism, writes journalist Lester Holloway. If the new prime minister wants to start making amends, he argues, introducing a Race Equality Act in his first King’s Speech on Wednesday is essential.
The dramatic fall in Labour’s support from Muslim voters at the 2024 general election prompted some post-poll reflection, yet the commentary has narrowly framed the issue as being about Gaza. Sir Keir Starmer’s position on the issue undoubtedly contributed significantly to the result, which saw the election of five independent MPs – one of whom unseated Labour’s Jonathan Ashworth – and the narrow survival of two other prominent figures, including the new health secretary, Wes Streeting. But is it the full picture?
Both the Asian and African and Caribbean Labour vote fell at the election, by 13 and 6 per cent, respectively, as the white vote rose. Conflict in the Middle East will naturally tempt commentators to separate communities of colour and assign different reasons for their voting behaviour. However, serious analysis should consider whether there is a common thread beyond Gaza, namely disillusionment with Labour on the question of tackling systemic racism.
Asian Muslims, primarily from Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities, share with Africans and Caribbeans the worst economic outcomes in wages, the pay gap, disposable income and disproportionate unemployment compared to white Britons. Labour support from these groups spiked in 2017 under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, when there was hope the party understood and was willing to address racial barriers.
In this context it is legitimate to ask whether the desire for racial justice was a contributing factor for Asian Muslims alongside Gaza. Looking at African and Caribbean voters, also traditionally loyal to Labour but for whom Palestine is not quite such an influencing factor, initial post-election analysis puts Labour support from Black communities at an all-time low of 59 per cent, a six-point fall from the 2019 election. More surprisingly, polling company Focaldata says Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party actually increased support from this community by one percentage point. If true, it would be a truly extraordinary outcome in an election where the Tories suffered their worst-ever defeat, losing 244 seats.
It is not as if African and Caribbean voters were impressed by the Rwanda plan or Conservative gaslighting on race. Last autumn the Voice newspaper, in partnership with Cambridge University, published a large survey (10,000 sample) of Black British opinion, which found extremely high levels of dissatisfaction across all public service areas. Logically, this should have resulted in increased Black support for Labour.
But the Labour manifesto failed to offer much on race equality; mainly just a vague ‘Race Equality Act’ featuring ethnicity pay monitoring, though this poor offering was still ahead of other parties, including the Greens.
'The renaissance of anti-racism had a new twist'
Starmer supporters talk of needing two parliamentary terms to implement a reform programme that will be felt by the public, but on the question of tackling racial injustice they have less time. This is because, in the Black community, the clock started ticking in 2020 when Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests occurred following the racist murder of George Floyd. Starmer was rightly criticised for calling this a ‘moment’, but in a manner of speaking he was right.
It was the moment when a shift of attitudes took place. The renaissance of anti-racism had a new twist; it was underpinned by a left progressive critique of racial capitalism and critical questioning on questions from police funding to confronting the history of the west and the legacy of enslavement.
With politics, another shift occurred: the questioning of voter loyalty to both the US Democrats and the UK Labour Party. We witnessed the first signs of this with increased Black support for Donald Trump in 2020, albeit a small increase from a very low base. Polling in this year’s US election indicates that Black support could swell significantly.
As a former editor of the Voice, I’ve witnessed high and rising levels of disillusionment with Labour, which was not only a consequence of a failure to court the Black vote and a come-down from a spike of enthusiasm for the Corbyn-Diane Abbott ticket, but also an explicit rebellion against their vote being taken for granted over generations. As the Voice study found, Black people have had enough. This was shown by dismal voter turnout in highly diverse seats like Croydon West (49 per cent), Brent East (49 per cent), and Brent West (52 per cent).
Is there a connection between BLM and attitudes towards Labour among Asian Muslims? This is an under-explored topic, but the premier Asian newspaper Eastern Eye regularly discussed BLM and protests were noted for their multiculturalism with many British Asians attending. This connection was not the same as the Black-Asian unity in anti-racism organising in the 1970s and 80s, yet there was a sense that impatience for real change unleashed by BLM did impact British Asians.
The good news for Labour is that the problems are fixable, but the bad news is they have a short window to make progress if they are to avoid experiencing a sea-change where Black and Asian voters, once the most loyal voter base, sever emotional ties with the party.
First, and most obviously, urgently adopting a different stance on Gaza will be important, especially for the Muslim community, and there are signs things might be moving more in that direction. But more broadly, Starmer has the chance to prioritise tackling racial injustice.
Introducing a Race Equality Act in the first King’s Speech on Wednesday is essential, not least because ethnicity pay monitoring needs time to bed-in, so Black and Asian people can judge early whether it is making a difference. It would be foolish to regard ethnicity pay monitoring as a silver bullet to solving racial injustice in employment. The quicker it is introduced the greater the chance of introducing follow-up measures once its limited impact is known.
Most crucially, Starmer must introduce a mechanism at the heart of government to systematically probe all racial disparities and force ministers in every department to address them. Theresa May did this by setting up a Race Disparity Unit. If Starmer rejuvenated the unit, and backed it up with Number 10’s political heft, it has the potential to be far more effective than a Race Equality Act alone. It would hold the feet of every minister to the fire.
'Making serious in-roads into tackling racial disparities would be a major positive legacy'
The political benefits for Starmer are immense. At a time when post-election analysis focuses on how Labour’s victory was ‘wide but shallow’, the new prime minister has the opportunity to turn the tide and bring Black and Asian voters back into the fold by showing, for the first time, that government can make a different in tackling unequal racial outcomes when the political will exists.
Making serious in-roads into tackling racial disparities would be a major positive legacy for Starmer. Moreover, it would provide Labour with a powerful story that will last for generations. In the current context, introducing another law that fails to make a material difference to the lived experience of Black and Asian communities will no longer cut it. The drive for racial justice has to be integrated into the heart of government.
A Race Equality Act in the first King’s Speech will serve primarily as a declaration of intent, as well as allowing an assessment of how ethnicity pay monitoring is working or not. But it must be accompanied by a race disparity focus across government to truly change Britain.
For Labour, the electoral prize for getting it right will last generations, but the penalty for failure may well be a catastrophic loss of Black and Asian support at the ballot box in future elections. The performance of Greens and independent candidates suggest increased confidence that there could be a ‘home’ for votes, destroying the argument that there is ‘no alternative’ but Labour.
In a scenario where the government’s fiscal constraints on public spending coincide with a lack of growth and struggling families do not feel a positive difference, Labour will become increasingly vulnerable to the left getting its act together, especially if that includes an exciting vision for racial justice.
If Starmer finds himself in a pincer movement between a revived multicultural left and a rampant right led by Reform, it is game over for Labour’s Black and Asian vote. Making progress means acting fast while this window of opportunity is open.
Lester Holloway is writing in a personal capacity. He is a former editor of the Voice newspaper, and has previously worked for the Runnymede Trust and the TUC.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Runnymede Trust.
Join the fight for racial justice: support the Runnymede Trust’s work by making a donation.
Photo: ©iStock/no_limit_pictures
